Great analysis, I'd like to add on a couple of thoughts.
First, Iran can't have gotten this far without the support of China and Russia. Much as this is existential for Iran, if the US were to win and gain control of the straits it would be catastrophic for China as the US would have an enormous leverage force. A win for US Would all but guarantee a future escalation with China which is something they would rather avoid. So expect China and Russia to continue supporting Iran as the stakes are very high for both countries.
Second, what if the Empire goes all in and still loses? There's no guarantee that Iran will wave the white flag, these guys have been preparing for this war for at least two decades. They know how brutal the US can be, they know the stakes are very high. They have two very powerful archetypes pushing them, their long Persian heritage and their Shia faith that talks of an end of the world war against the forces of evil. This is it for them. The Iranians are very well educated and very well motivated and have had a long time to prepare for this war therefore we need to assume they prepared for the eventuality of a massive bombing campaign by the US. Is the US being led or leading itself to a trap?
Thirdly, this is the first major war we've had in the social media age where a significant portion of the world's population has instant access to the latest news and videos without going through MSM. What happens then Shia Muslims in Bahrain, Iraq and Saudi Arabia start seeing videos of the US carpet bombing Tehran and killing tens of thousands of civilians as Trump gloats publicly on social media? We can be guaranteed that there will be significant unrest that could spread across the entire region creating chaos, toppling regimes and causing all types of unpredictable events. The Shia in Iraq are already waiting for a signal from their grand ayatollah to enter this war.
Ultimately the best option for the US is to negotiate but unfortunately the US isn't a reliable and honest negotiator which means Russia and China and maybe Europe would have to step in with some form of guarantees. Whatever the case the world will never be the same again and the US will forever regret getting into this very unavoidable war
So if we are in scenario building: what you write and which I also agree with, means, in my view (formed from Shanghai but by a French guy), that China (also a significant holder of US bonds, as well as Japan, Korea, the Europeans (although totally emasculated by their US bosses) will be leaning on the US to form a compromise.
China actually holds the key to continued technological progress (ie economic growth...) in the US, with its stranglehold on so-called rare earths, and its near monopoly on production of so-called new energy equipment (from solar panels to nuclear plants via electric vehicles and electronics for everyone...) and virtually all supply chains in the world. It needs the Gulf produced oil and gas, but not as badly as others (such as India, Europe, Africa...). And it can now pay its imports of raw materials in RMB. BRICS have now been able to build a separate forex system doing away from the USD (a product of the stupid war with Russia), and will certainly not let it go.
So the actual negotiation to end the war in Iran will happen between China and the US. And it will not be gentle. I would bet China will find the way to have a long term deal letting an apparence of survival to the petrodollar happen, a commitment of no violence on Taiwan, in return for stopping the war and a reasonable outcome for the Iranians (who will make their relationships improve with GCC members while leading to regime changes locally :).
All this may happen once Trump is himself eviscerated by mid term elections and their outcome and Vance takes control.
So let us hope things hold this way till November and hope again for the better...
Jay very good article, you mentioned history of the human race in modern times and you are quite correct. ominous times are ahead as I believe that Trump and his coherts are just buying time to develop more drone missiles instead of the current system of jet fighters launching targeted missiles at a cost of more than 100 times that of a drone missile. The USA has not caught up with the modern cheap methods of conducting war. I believe the USA will change tactics and start to launch drones instead guided by satellites from a remote location in the USA mainland.
Very insightful article. I would only add that this war has become existential and religious for the Mullahs that rule Iran. In their minds, that Washington does not seem to understand, they simply cant surrender to the “Great Satan” making any diplomatic resolution without Regime change extremely difficult.
The US cannot win. We either go into a serious depression which the population is not prepared to survive or we go into really crazy debt which will destroy our economic system and produce a civil war/revolution which most of us will not survive (including much of the government).
You do not mention a third alternative which we have flirted with through many decades but in the end refused to take seriously and that is to address our fossil fuel and electric addiction directly and honestly. It is not necessary to burn all this oil and LNG. There are alternative ways to transport, produce "stuff", heat and cool, refrigerate, and cook. First off, we have never seriously tried real conservation. If we removed the profit motive out of the production of energy, by nationalizing it, most of our military would be unnecessary.
You also do not mention that we no longer have the industrial base we used to. Our military hardware no longer works--it's irrelevant. And we cannot produce enough to do the invasions we are so fond of. Even three atomic bombs on Japan did not end Japan. And the war was over before we bombed them, in any case. There's something really sick in the American society. That's what we should be addressing.
You think dropping H bombs on Iran is going to solve things? That's like growing "food" with glyphosate. What are you going to do when Russia or China drops H bombs on your country?
This is such a male way to address problems. How about actually collaborating and taking Iran's (and all the countries of West Asia) needs as seriously as those of the US and Western Europe.
Before you do that, you have to identify your needs which you cannot because you have NEVER figured out how much you COULD conserve.
West Asia knows how to conserve. They've had to learn this in order to survive under excessive Western greed and abuse.
You do not win a fight by pummeling your opponent into submission because eventually your opponent will come back smarter, more creative (of necessity), with tools and intellectual abilities you have not had to develop. This is where we are today.
Iran can sink your navy and your oil tankers. They don't need desalination plants because they have old technologies to produce clean water. Americans have never had to rely on old technologies. And they lack the respect needed to learn them from their originators.
The US' main problem is racism. If they were not so racist towards Iranians, they would have realized what they were up against and would have negotiated a more reasonable path. But your racism blinded you. You could not see your opposition. You could not identify what you needed to learn. Although they did not want to go to war, I would have to say they used your racism against you, with your eager participation. It's what I always tell people of color and women: Let them project their racism and sexism on you. Let them blind themselves to reality. They will lose if they do this.
Time to go back to square one and learn some humility.
Well, I don't think I am racist. And I am definitely not American, but I appreciate your comment nonetheless. None of what I write is what I want to happen. I study history to understand what will likely happen, not based on present-day American values, as you mentioned, but on the historical precedent of what human beings will do to hold on to power - And those precedents travel freely across international borders.
Whether the American Empire of the 20th century, the Persian Empires of the 16th to 18th centuries, the Mongols, the Mughals, the Songhai or any other, there is one constant: power corrupts, and people do crazy things to hold on to that power. And, as mentioned, that precedent, unfortunately, jumps across geographic, religious and ethnic borders.
This is true. However, no West Asian power has been able to fight back to the degree Iran has. Qaddafi kept the colonialists out of Libya for an impressive amount of time but in the end he sought Western approval and Hillary Clinton made sure he paid for that, revealing her true nature. I never trusted her and I don't think the Clintons fit your assumption that power corrupts. Bill and Hillary seemed intent on power long before they had any. I was responding to your post but mostly I speak to Americans when commenting. They generally do not travel except as tourists which is just packaged Orientalism when it comes to West Asia and East Asia. Even going to UK is a jump into BBC propaganda tea cozies. I do think culture makes a difference. Granted European people have been aggressive and predatory. But even during the Islamic Empire, they did not require people to give up their cultures, religions, identities. The US' gold card was the petrodollar. That funded the military and everything else. They siphoned off a tremendous of wealth (as did the British during their empire). As have the Zionists, for that matter. Can you think of any time in the last 2000 years where any empire was in this situation? I suspect Israel would have been decimated by now (and perhaps they have been but aren't allowing reporting so we don't know that) but for their nuclear threat. If they do nuke Iran, before the rest of the world knows what they have done the Iranians will render Israel completely done. They can do this with their missiles in a few minutes. Israelis can forget about their bunkers. I have noticed that there is a minority of people who have it in them to realize they are being corrupted by power so they pull back and withdraw. For a minority of people personal integrity is more important than social/financial/political power. I'll grant you it's no more than 20% of the population at best. I think the Islamic government of Iran operates to an admirable degree with integrity. Their integrity seems more powerful than any American president. The Chinese could do a lot but they don't. Why? (Besides the fact it's fun to watch the US self-destruct.) I like to believe humans can sometimes think of the needs of others. I know that is true. It is a culturally eastern attribute. Westerners don't really understand that about China.
Have you seen Richard Medhurst's most recent analysis? Fighting over resources is such a waste of a life. This exhausts me. Please watch Richard's latest.
I feel you. I’m tired of this shit. And racism is just the background noise they use to keep us looking the other way, divided, and keep the KKK in power. There are countries who manage to thrive without killing millions of people around the world, or even one person. Why can’t Americans stop with the desire for greed and power and just live fulfilling lives?
It's not Jay Martin I think is racist. I don't know anything about him. I am referring to the US as a country and most American diplomats, military thinkers, government, oil companies, journalists, the works. I grew up in Iran and watched the dynamic. When approaching Iran as a country, the US as a country which is composed of individuals with racist perceptions based on 150 years' at least of indoctrination in your media, your entertainment, idiot statements by its "experts" and governmental officials, et al., including pundits who generally know nothing about the place, approach Iran as a bunch of "camel drivers" and "rag heads", completely ignorant of their history or culture or scientific abilities--not to mention how much of our science, philosophy, mathematics and even our ALPHABET and NUMBERS came from West Asia. It is only pretty recently that individuals with some background in the reality that is Iran have emerged. By "recently" I would say in the last couple years. The "exiled" Iranians in L.A. exhibit the effect of internalized racism resulting from the way they, or their parents, were treated by Americans both in and outside of Iran dating back to at least the overthrow of Mossadeqh. My "diagnosis" of racism goes back to the 60's where I witnessed it first-hand. The whole "hostage situation" reeked of racism. The media's coverage of the Revolution then and now is totally racist. The reason the US did not understand what would happen if they went to war against Iran was racism. Some of the military advisors might have seen the truth (and been fired for voicing it). Why do you think this country could be convinced to obliterate Iraq on the basis of the Kuwaiti ambassador's daughter saying she witnessed Iraqis throwing incubators with babies inside them out the window of the hospital? Even Amnesty International bought that one. How many Americans STILL believe Hamas beheaded God knows how many babies and raped how many women? That's totally racist. What do you think American historical support of Israel is? It's completely racist. "Giving" Europeans Palestine was totally racist. The subjugation of Afghanistan was completely racist. The official narrative of 9/11 flew only because of American racist views of Muslims and Arabs. Go back to the 1920's silent films and it's plain as the nose on your face. Read Edward Said's "Orientalism". Judging from your name you really don't need to be told any of this. Replace "arab" or "Muslim" or "Iranian" with Asian and you should know this if you have spent any time in the West. I'm not talking about Jay Martin. Maybe I should be more careful with pronouns. Westerners say we have to go into Afghanistan (or wherever in West Asia) to save their women. Give me a break! The current administration (and many before) have declared war on American women. It has nothing to do with women's rights. It's an excuse. Why hasn't the Equal Rights Amendment been passed YET??? That fight is a century old. Do you even know what the ERA is? Cheney et al. wanted to build a pipeline through Pakistan to India and westward through Iran, Iraq, Syria to Haifa. And they use racism to get buy-in by the American public--using officials of color to push it, no less. Even the use of the term "stone age" is friggin' racism. That refers mostly to Europe--not the Middle East. I will posit that Jay mentioning previous empires and mentioning only American as an example of European empire along with a bunch of West Asian and East Asian ones--that's pretty racist. What about the colonialization of Japan by the Portuguese? The colonialization of China by England? I could go on and on and on about European colonialization but why not mention those? The West is INSANELY racist towards people in West Asia. Why is it only non-Europeans are nuked and Westerners think that okay. Militarily expedient? Why is it okay to commit genocide against Palestinians, Lebanese, Syrians? Westerners consider them "brown". What a bunch of hooey. Assuming from your surname that you are of East Asian stock, excuse me??!!! Do you suffer from Oppression Sickness, as a colleague of mine named it during the Rodney King Riots in LA in 1992? Do we really have to go there?
Nosey—I can sense the frustration in your words, You grew up in Iran and saw it first hand. Media, education, and thought circles all contribute to ignorance of Persian engineering, science and sophistication. Prior to the Shah Tehran was very cosmo (bikinis). I appreciate and thank you for sharing. I want to be clear: I don’t dismiss the reality of the bias you’ve witnessed. I grew up in Pittsburgh and Atlanta (I’m 54 now). I’ve been on the receiving end of prejudice. I’ve also lived in Taiwan and Hawaii and seen it go the other way. In Southern California I’ve worked alongside Jewish and Muslim Iranians.
Earlier in my life, particularly in college, I saw the world primarily thorugh a lens of race. Eventually I realized that filtering every interaction through that lens was a trap—it can actually prevent you from seeing the commonalities and complexities that exist between people. Labels like 'Racism' or 'Oppression Sickness' can sometimes be too convenient or 'lazy'—they offer an easy answer to what are often much more difficult questions. Everyone deals with bias, whether it's based on heritage, appearance/body type, or even neurodivergence (I’m on the autism spectrum). As a second-generation immigrant, I believe the burden is to acknowledge that bias exists, but then move beyond it so it doesn't define your entire reality. For sure as 1st generation my parents experienced more prejudice than I.
This is why I have a hard time with your diagnosis of 'Racism' as the primary engine of US foreign policy. Using that word creates an extra burden of proof regarding causality. Was it dark skin color that caused the US to underestimate Iran, or was it a broader American superiority complex and a general ignorance of the world?
For example, if we look at the current administration—when Trump is surrounded by 'yes men' telling him he can easily control global oil prices or dictate terms to foreign powers, is that truly driven by racism? Or is it simply the result of a massive ego fed by bad intelligence and an echo chamber that refuses to reality-test its assumptions?
We shouldn’t underestimate geopolitical architecture and campaign fianance. Could much of 'racism' regarding US support for Israel is actually result from deep-seated political influence and campaign money that shapes policy long before it ever reaches the public? This is polictical mechanics, not necessarily racial animus.
In my view, expert ignorance is often a product of intellectual echo champers, a lack of meaningful dialogue, and a failure of 'reality testing.' When leaders only talk to people who agree with them, they lose the ability to see the opposition clearly. History is full of 'white-on-white' strategic hubris—the British at Yorktown, or the US failing to anticipate Soviet technological leaps. Furthermore, the US maintains deep strategic alliances with West Asian nations like the UAE and SA. An alternative view is the friction with Iran could be driven by geopolictal architecture and realpolitik rather than simple racial animus.
I agree that the US suffers from a lack of humility. However, the solution isn't just labeling the problem as racism; it’s time, exposure, and rigorous engagement. We need more direct contact and fewer filters. To me, 'underestimation' is the more precise diagnosis—it’s an intelligence and power failure that can be corrected through better information, whereas 'racism' as a label often just ends the conversation.
Eric, I'm "mixed-race" Asian (Japanese, to be exact). The reason I was born and raised in the Middle East is institutionalized racism. It didn't have much to do with my father's skin color. It was his ethnicity and nationality (Canadian by birth). Japanese-Canadians and Japanese-Mexicans were forbidden naturalization in the U.S. across the board, under any circumstances. Until the Civil Rights Act of 1965 which made discrimination by national origin illegal. (Hear that, Trump?) This goes way back to the 1880's and 1890's and was solidified in the early 20th century when Japan won the Russo-Japanese war and the US decided the only people who could possibly take over the US was Japan. Mind you, the Americans FORCED the Japanese to open up to them in the late 1800's. Basically I use "racism" as a short-cut since I know from personal experience that "race" does not exist. What we see as race is the result of people "inbreeding" due to geographical isolation. All blue-eyed people are descended from the same male who had a genetic malfunction. Did you know that? There is no such thing as race; but there is no word in English for what the Americans did to the Iranians. "Oppression sickness" refers to a person from a group that is discriminated against by the power group, told in every way possible that they are inferior, until they internalize these messages and believe them to be an immovable FACT. American universities have known for at least 70 years and likely more that students coming from the Iranian educational system are 2-4 years ahead of their Western counterparts in math and science across the board. Even the most mediocre students in science were 2 years ahead of their American counterparts. Science majors often have to begin their freshman year in graduate level courses, they are so far ahead. This isn't color of one's skin or slant of one's eyes stuff. It's not even racism since most Iranians are aryan. What happened in Iran was a grotesque indoctrination of the rightful owners of resources the Westerners wanted and they used fucked up cultural attacks to convince Iranians they were inferior to Westerners because of their culture. Those Westerners never learned the language (the CIA paid for their intel which is why it was so bad), never learned the first thing about their culture. I was 13 when I first went to Iran and knew no Farsi at the time. It took 5 days exploring the neighborhood of our guest house to realize there was going to be a revolution. Four years later I finally told the number three CIA official in Iran there was going to be a revolution and he jeered at me. He said organizing Iranians was like "herding cats" and laughed at his "wit". Yet when the revolution happened, the CIA said they had no idea. Bullshit. I get your resistance to "race". It's a stupid British idea that has caused no end of trouble to all humans. It does not exist. It's a catch-all phrase. And I mention this phenomenon in Iran in the 1970's to explain why there are so many Iranians in the US who sound like Israelis. They drank the Koolaid. I was warning people about this back in the 60's. And Iranian intellectuals were writing (carefully) about this. Why would Iranians work with MOSSAD within Iran to behead random strangers who passed them on the street? Why would they hate the ayatollahs. I'll grant you the ayatollahs have not been perfect. But compared to Christian leaders in the West I'll take the ayatollahs any day. They understand cultural misappropriation and discrimination very well. And they certainly are more ethical by a long shot. Don't get me started on Christianity as it is practiced in the West. Islam is much more progressive and compassionate a religion than Christianity, inmy opinion. The ayatollahs have made mistakes (due to political pressures it would take too long to explain and I don't know the half of it since I wasn't there at the time) but they have done an awful lot of good, given the condition the country was in before the revolution. The fear was paralyzing. I never studied Farsi formally, unfortunately, because the Persian teachers were required to inform on their students to SAVAK. It's much deeper than what passes for racism in the U.S. SAVAK were trained by the CIA and MOSSAD in Israel. You are comparing apples and oranges. People come to the US because, in part, of the indoctrination by the British. I know a lot of American academics who think the US school system is the best in the world. Most of them have never been outside the US. It most definitely is not. We had to come to the US every five years to "keep in touch with our culture" (which it wasn't as my American mother died young). Functioning in American schools was a joke. They were at least three years behind my school in Lebanon and Iran. I went to a highly respected private college in the US and stood out because of my reading background. My classmates had read maybe two books a year that weren't required in their private American schools. Europeans I have met visiting the US are much better read in American lit than Americans are. You grew up here. If you suffer from the same oppression sickness you probably don't even know it. I hope your parents were smart enough to bend over backward to keep their culture alive in you. (And their language?) What Americans did in Iran was extreme. Why do you think the hijab is such a big deal (not that most Americans knew what it was like for a woman to walk down the street at the time and how different--and much safer--it is now).
Jay interprets and articulates, in detail and honestly, current world events with historical parallels. The clarity that ensues for the reader and the realistic insight he provides is frightening in this instance. I am sure your reader base, like yourself Jay, hope you are wrong for once. A profound thank you for your commitment and service - it is very much appreciated!
Great analysis Jay. Maybe you should also consider that Russia and China have their own interests in the outcome and agency to act in direct and indirect ways to counter American goals. Iran is a huge area that is not easy to surveil, particularly underground, or overwhelm with ground troops because of the mountainous terrain. An all out nuclear attack would likely receive a similar response from Russia and China, only Israel is in support of this approach as considered in their Samson Option.
Iran also has Hezbollah and Ansarallah on their side and they've demonstrated they punch above their weight and are fearless. They are experienced in asymmetric warfare in ways that have defied more powerful adversaries in the past.
The US may have a super-discombobulator (or other Wunderwaffen) that hasn't been revealed but Russia has the Oreshnik hypersonic missile, the Burevestnik global missile and the Poseidon nuclear drone. China also has the ability to destroy satellites, containerized missiles and roll-on roll-off cargo carriers which can conceal tanks and armored vehicles to bring grief to continental America. I doubt the Chinese are pleased about what is going on with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the US agreement with Indonesia to control the Strait of Malacca.
China controls the global rare earths market. Despite all the US desire to obtain more resources, what they don't have is the technology or know how (trade secrets) to separate and refine them at scale or manage and dispose of all the hazardous liquid and solid wastes. This is a difficult problem to solve quickly with the current level of education in the workforce. The whole suite of rare earths are required for manufacturing the range of diverse technological components involved for computing, aircraft, drones and weapons.
It might be better for Trump to swallow his pride and pursue a peaceful solution. A win-win outcome is best for all the people of the world.
First of all, Jay, I appreciated your previous article on "The Mongols, Drones, and the Future of War."
Regarding the need for Dollars for Central Banks, etc., at this point, there is precious little oil to buy at almost any price, so loading up with Dollars won't happen until tankers are moving again. We are already seeing rationing/running out of oil products in a number of countries. More Dollars won't bring them any more oil.
On a different tack, I find it interesting that after Trump tariffed Europe/NATO countries, made fun of their leaders in some of the most rude ways possible, and now whines because they aren't riding to the rescue, with him expecting them to break the bottleneck. Personally, I believe they are loving the egomaniac taking a fall for a change. This is not NATO's war whatsoever and no European countries war. This is Israel's War and Donnie is Netanyahu's junior partner in crime. If we had a Congress worthy of the name, they would impeach him for starting a war which constitutionally only Congress can decide. Trump acts like Napoleon, but it seems he may have ran into his own personal Waterloo.
Jay, very thoughtful analysis with many factors considered. I too hope we don’t go into worst case scenarios.
I see Israel as the wild card with huge influence within US establishments. They could influence for different outcome, not to rational actions for good of America or the region.
China will not want Iran to lose this war nor this source of energy for their economy. It is likely that China will continue to support Iran both militarily and economically and defy the US no matter how desperate we are to destroy Iran. This war will drag on for more years and bleed the global economy with slower growth and contraction in many economies with higher costs for everything everywhere, while displacing and killing innocent civilians.
Great article that really opened my eyes to all the potential outcomes. It sounds like Brent Johnson is betting on "The Flip" but it will be massively hard to pull off.
You're an excellent writer and I appreciate your sharing your deep thinking with me.
But China and Russia cannot accept this outcome as it is clearly aimed at them. The Gulf states know this and see that the US is no longer able to guarantee their fragile safety. A missile now and then will kill their position as a fugitive camp for the rich, tourist destination, AI and other tech business base and air transport hub not to mention the vulnerability of their oil and gas business they are trying to diversify on.
The Gulf state leaders have educations at top universities and will also understand that this is how empires die and put the long term interests of their countries first. War, and especially a protracted one, is not on their wish list I guess and will force them to divest from the US. Iran is playing this.
China, Russia and Iran dominate the "Heartland" and with the present vulnerability of air and seapower they may have better cards than the guys thinking they hold all the cards.
The only thing I think that is missing....is that the world seems so wrapped up in such extreme ideology and psychotic ego and greed that what is missing is just the people who are reasonable, sensible and logical to sit at a table and figure this shit out, face to face and that they need to remember who and what is at stake here. Us. The Humans, on this planet all trying to eke out an existence.
These people Nancy are called Russians, Americans and Israelis. Nobody else (to my knowledge) is currently engaged in the theft of resources and land and children from others.
Great analysis, I'd like to add on a couple of thoughts.
First, Iran can't have gotten this far without the support of China and Russia. Much as this is existential for Iran, if the US were to win and gain control of the straits it would be catastrophic for China as the US would have an enormous leverage force. A win for US Would all but guarantee a future escalation with China which is something they would rather avoid. So expect China and Russia to continue supporting Iran as the stakes are very high for both countries.
Second, what if the Empire goes all in and still loses? There's no guarantee that Iran will wave the white flag, these guys have been preparing for this war for at least two decades. They know how brutal the US can be, they know the stakes are very high. They have two very powerful archetypes pushing them, their long Persian heritage and their Shia faith that talks of an end of the world war against the forces of evil. This is it for them. The Iranians are very well educated and very well motivated and have had a long time to prepare for this war therefore we need to assume they prepared for the eventuality of a massive bombing campaign by the US. Is the US being led or leading itself to a trap?
Thirdly, this is the first major war we've had in the social media age where a significant portion of the world's population has instant access to the latest news and videos without going through MSM. What happens then Shia Muslims in Bahrain, Iraq and Saudi Arabia start seeing videos of the US carpet bombing Tehran and killing tens of thousands of civilians as Trump gloats publicly on social media? We can be guaranteed that there will be significant unrest that could spread across the entire region creating chaos, toppling regimes and causing all types of unpredictable events. The Shia in Iraq are already waiting for a signal from their grand ayatollah to enter this war.
Ultimately the best option for the US is to negotiate but unfortunately the US isn't a reliable and honest negotiator which means Russia and China and maybe Europe would have to step in with some form of guarantees. Whatever the case the world will never be the same again and the US will forever regret getting into this very unavoidable war
I agree on all points.
Surely you meant "entirely avoidable"
Great comment I disagree on only one point ie part of your last sentence This war was avoidable. I agree that it will be regretted
The U.S. is losing more every day. Dumpf is too ignorant, arrogant, and blackmailed to know otherwise. He is one loudmouth fukking dumb SOB!
Thank you and Jay for great analyses.
So if we are in scenario building: what you write and which I also agree with, means, in my view (formed from Shanghai but by a French guy), that China (also a significant holder of US bonds, as well as Japan, Korea, the Europeans (although totally emasculated by their US bosses) will be leaning on the US to form a compromise.
China actually holds the key to continued technological progress (ie economic growth...) in the US, with its stranglehold on so-called rare earths, and its near monopoly on production of so-called new energy equipment (from solar panels to nuclear plants via electric vehicles and electronics for everyone...) and virtually all supply chains in the world. It needs the Gulf produced oil and gas, but not as badly as others (such as India, Europe, Africa...). And it can now pay its imports of raw materials in RMB. BRICS have now been able to build a separate forex system doing away from the USD (a product of the stupid war with Russia), and will certainly not let it go.
So the actual negotiation to end the war in Iran will happen between China and the US. And it will not be gentle. I would bet China will find the way to have a long term deal letting an apparence of survival to the petrodollar happen, a commitment of no violence on Taiwan, in return for stopping the war and a reasonable outcome for the Iranians (who will make their relationships improve with GCC members while leading to regime changes locally :).
All this may happen once Trump is himself eviscerated by mid term elections and their outcome and Vance takes control.
So let us hope things hold this way till November and hope again for the better...
Jay very good article, you mentioned history of the human race in modern times and you are quite correct. ominous times are ahead as I believe that Trump and his coherts are just buying time to develop more drone missiles instead of the current system of jet fighters launching targeted missiles at a cost of more than 100 times that of a drone missile. The USA has not caught up with the modern cheap methods of conducting war. I believe the USA will change tactics and start to launch drones instead guided by satellites from a remote location in the USA mainland.
very good insight analysis of the Iran conflict
Thank you Brent
Very insightful article. I would only add that this war has become existential and religious for the Mullahs that rule Iran. In their minds, that Washington does not seem to understand, they simply cant surrender to the “Great Satan” making any diplomatic resolution without Regime change extremely difficult.
The US cannot win. We either go into a serious depression which the population is not prepared to survive or we go into really crazy debt which will destroy our economic system and produce a civil war/revolution which most of us will not survive (including much of the government).
You do not mention a third alternative which we have flirted with through many decades but in the end refused to take seriously and that is to address our fossil fuel and electric addiction directly and honestly. It is not necessary to burn all this oil and LNG. There are alternative ways to transport, produce "stuff", heat and cool, refrigerate, and cook. First off, we have never seriously tried real conservation. If we removed the profit motive out of the production of energy, by nationalizing it, most of our military would be unnecessary.
You also do not mention that we no longer have the industrial base we used to. Our military hardware no longer works--it's irrelevant. And we cannot produce enough to do the invasions we are so fond of. Even three atomic bombs on Japan did not end Japan. And the war was over before we bombed them, in any case. There's something really sick in the American society. That's what we should be addressing.
You think dropping H bombs on Iran is going to solve things? That's like growing "food" with glyphosate. What are you going to do when Russia or China drops H bombs on your country?
This is such a male way to address problems. How about actually collaborating and taking Iran's (and all the countries of West Asia) needs as seriously as those of the US and Western Europe.
Before you do that, you have to identify your needs which you cannot because you have NEVER figured out how much you COULD conserve.
West Asia knows how to conserve. They've had to learn this in order to survive under excessive Western greed and abuse.
You do not win a fight by pummeling your opponent into submission because eventually your opponent will come back smarter, more creative (of necessity), with tools and intellectual abilities you have not had to develop. This is where we are today.
Iran can sink your navy and your oil tankers. They don't need desalination plants because they have old technologies to produce clean water. Americans have never had to rely on old technologies. And they lack the respect needed to learn them from their originators.
The US' main problem is racism. If they were not so racist towards Iranians, they would have realized what they were up against and would have negotiated a more reasonable path. But your racism blinded you. You could not see your opposition. You could not identify what you needed to learn. Although they did not want to go to war, I would have to say they used your racism against you, with your eager participation. It's what I always tell people of color and women: Let them project their racism and sexism on you. Let them blind themselves to reality. They will lose if they do this.
Time to go back to square one and learn some humility.
Well, I don't think I am racist. And I am definitely not American, but I appreciate your comment nonetheless. None of what I write is what I want to happen. I study history to understand what will likely happen, not based on present-day American values, as you mentioned, but on the historical precedent of what human beings will do to hold on to power - And those precedents travel freely across international borders.
Whether the American Empire of the 20th century, the Persian Empires of the 16th to 18th centuries, the Mongols, the Mughals, the Songhai or any other, there is one constant: power corrupts, and people do crazy things to hold on to that power. And, as mentioned, that precedent, unfortunately, jumps across geographic, religious and ethnic borders.
This is true. However, no West Asian power has been able to fight back to the degree Iran has. Qaddafi kept the colonialists out of Libya for an impressive amount of time but in the end he sought Western approval and Hillary Clinton made sure he paid for that, revealing her true nature. I never trusted her and I don't think the Clintons fit your assumption that power corrupts. Bill and Hillary seemed intent on power long before they had any. I was responding to your post but mostly I speak to Americans when commenting. They generally do not travel except as tourists which is just packaged Orientalism when it comes to West Asia and East Asia. Even going to UK is a jump into BBC propaganda tea cozies. I do think culture makes a difference. Granted European people have been aggressive and predatory. But even during the Islamic Empire, they did not require people to give up their cultures, religions, identities. The US' gold card was the petrodollar. That funded the military and everything else. They siphoned off a tremendous of wealth (as did the British during their empire). As have the Zionists, for that matter. Can you think of any time in the last 2000 years where any empire was in this situation? I suspect Israel would have been decimated by now (and perhaps they have been but aren't allowing reporting so we don't know that) but for their nuclear threat. If they do nuke Iran, before the rest of the world knows what they have done the Iranians will render Israel completely done. They can do this with their missiles in a few minutes. Israelis can forget about their bunkers. I have noticed that there is a minority of people who have it in them to realize they are being corrupted by power so they pull back and withdraw. For a minority of people personal integrity is more important than social/financial/political power. I'll grant you it's no more than 20% of the population at best. I think the Islamic government of Iran operates to an admirable degree with integrity. Their integrity seems more powerful than any American president. The Chinese could do a lot but they don't. Why? (Besides the fact it's fun to watch the US self-destruct.) I like to believe humans can sometimes think of the needs of others. I know that is true. It is a culturally eastern attribute. Westerners don't really understand that about China.
Have you seen Richard Medhurst's most recent analysis? Fighting over resources is such a waste of a life. This exhausts me. Please watch Richard's latest.
https://richardmedhurst.substack.com/p/the-petrogas-dollar-the-secret-us?publication_id=315447&post_id=194301678&r=f8h4m&triedRedirect=true&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
I feel you. I’m tired of this shit. And racism is just the background noise they use to keep us looking the other way, divided, and keep the KKK in power. There are countries who manage to thrive without killing millions of people around the world, or even one person. Why can’t Americans stop with the desire for greed and power and just live fulfilling lives?
How do you arrive at the diagnosis or racism?
Maybe someone can have a misconception, or underestimate, or buy into a stereotype.
Was there a prejudice or a derogatory slur said?
I’m puzzled 🤔
It's not Jay Martin I think is racist. I don't know anything about him. I am referring to the US as a country and most American diplomats, military thinkers, government, oil companies, journalists, the works. I grew up in Iran and watched the dynamic. When approaching Iran as a country, the US as a country which is composed of individuals with racist perceptions based on 150 years' at least of indoctrination in your media, your entertainment, idiot statements by its "experts" and governmental officials, et al., including pundits who generally know nothing about the place, approach Iran as a bunch of "camel drivers" and "rag heads", completely ignorant of their history or culture or scientific abilities--not to mention how much of our science, philosophy, mathematics and even our ALPHABET and NUMBERS came from West Asia. It is only pretty recently that individuals with some background in the reality that is Iran have emerged. By "recently" I would say in the last couple years. The "exiled" Iranians in L.A. exhibit the effect of internalized racism resulting from the way they, or their parents, were treated by Americans both in and outside of Iran dating back to at least the overthrow of Mossadeqh. My "diagnosis" of racism goes back to the 60's where I witnessed it first-hand. The whole "hostage situation" reeked of racism. The media's coverage of the Revolution then and now is totally racist. The reason the US did not understand what would happen if they went to war against Iran was racism. Some of the military advisors might have seen the truth (and been fired for voicing it). Why do you think this country could be convinced to obliterate Iraq on the basis of the Kuwaiti ambassador's daughter saying she witnessed Iraqis throwing incubators with babies inside them out the window of the hospital? Even Amnesty International bought that one. How many Americans STILL believe Hamas beheaded God knows how many babies and raped how many women? That's totally racist. What do you think American historical support of Israel is? It's completely racist. "Giving" Europeans Palestine was totally racist. The subjugation of Afghanistan was completely racist. The official narrative of 9/11 flew only because of American racist views of Muslims and Arabs. Go back to the 1920's silent films and it's plain as the nose on your face. Read Edward Said's "Orientalism". Judging from your name you really don't need to be told any of this. Replace "arab" or "Muslim" or "Iranian" with Asian and you should know this if you have spent any time in the West. I'm not talking about Jay Martin. Maybe I should be more careful with pronouns. Westerners say we have to go into Afghanistan (or wherever in West Asia) to save their women. Give me a break! The current administration (and many before) have declared war on American women. It has nothing to do with women's rights. It's an excuse. Why hasn't the Equal Rights Amendment been passed YET??? That fight is a century old. Do you even know what the ERA is? Cheney et al. wanted to build a pipeline through Pakistan to India and westward through Iran, Iraq, Syria to Haifa. And they use racism to get buy-in by the American public--using officials of color to push it, no less. Even the use of the term "stone age" is friggin' racism. That refers mostly to Europe--not the Middle East. I will posit that Jay mentioning previous empires and mentioning only American as an example of European empire along with a bunch of West Asian and East Asian ones--that's pretty racist. What about the colonialization of Japan by the Portuguese? The colonialization of China by England? I could go on and on and on about European colonialization but why not mention those? The West is INSANELY racist towards people in West Asia. Why is it only non-Europeans are nuked and Westerners think that okay. Militarily expedient? Why is it okay to commit genocide against Palestinians, Lebanese, Syrians? Westerners consider them "brown". What a bunch of hooey. Assuming from your surname that you are of East Asian stock, excuse me??!!! Do you suffer from Oppression Sickness, as a colleague of mine named it during the Rodney King Riots in LA in 1992? Do we really have to go there?
Nosey—I can sense the frustration in your words, You grew up in Iran and saw it first hand. Media, education, and thought circles all contribute to ignorance of Persian engineering, science and sophistication. Prior to the Shah Tehran was very cosmo (bikinis). I appreciate and thank you for sharing. I want to be clear: I don’t dismiss the reality of the bias you’ve witnessed. I grew up in Pittsburgh and Atlanta (I’m 54 now). I’ve been on the receiving end of prejudice. I’ve also lived in Taiwan and Hawaii and seen it go the other way. In Southern California I’ve worked alongside Jewish and Muslim Iranians.
Earlier in my life, particularly in college, I saw the world primarily thorugh a lens of race. Eventually I realized that filtering every interaction through that lens was a trap—it can actually prevent you from seeing the commonalities and complexities that exist between people. Labels like 'Racism' or 'Oppression Sickness' can sometimes be too convenient or 'lazy'—they offer an easy answer to what are often much more difficult questions. Everyone deals with bias, whether it's based on heritage, appearance/body type, or even neurodivergence (I’m on the autism spectrum). As a second-generation immigrant, I believe the burden is to acknowledge that bias exists, but then move beyond it so it doesn't define your entire reality. For sure as 1st generation my parents experienced more prejudice than I.
This is why I have a hard time with your diagnosis of 'Racism' as the primary engine of US foreign policy. Using that word creates an extra burden of proof regarding causality. Was it dark skin color that caused the US to underestimate Iran, or was it a broader American superiority complex and a general ignorance of the world?
For example, if we look at the current administration—when Trump is surrounded by 'yes men' telling him he can easily control global oil prices or dictate terms to foreign powers, is that truly driven by racism? Or is it simply the result of a massive ego fed by bad intelligence and an echo chamber that refuses to reality-test its assumptions?
We shouldn’t underestimate geopolitical architecture and campaign fianance. Could much of 'racism' regarding US support for Israel is actually result from deep-seated political influence and campaign money that shapes policy long before it ever reaches the public? This is polictical mechanics, not necessarily racial animus.
In my view, expert ignorance is often a product of intellectual echo champers, a lack of meaningful dialogue, and a failure of 'reality testing.' When leaders only talk to people who agree with them, they lose the ability to see the opposition clearly. History is full of 'white-on-white' strategic hubris—the British at Yorktown, or the US failing to anticipate Soviet technological leaps. Furthermore, the US maintains deep strategic alliances with West Asian nations like the UAE and SA. An alternative view is the friction with Iran could be driven by geopolictal architecture and realpolitik rather than simple racial animus.
I agree that the US suffers from a lack of humility. However, the solution isn't just labeling the problem as racism; it’s time, exposure, and rigorous engagement. We need more direct contact and fewer filters. To me, 'underestimation' is the more precise diagnosis—it’s an intelligence and power failure that can be corrected through better information, whereas 'racism' as a label often just ends the conversation.
Eric, I'm "mixed-race" Asian (Japanese, to be exact). The reason I was born and raised in the Middle East is institutionalized racism. It didn't have much to do with my father's skin color. It was his ethnicity and nationality (Canadian by birth). Japanese-Canadians and Japanese-Mexicans were forbidden naturalization in the U.S. across the board, under any circumstances. Until the Civil Rights Act of 1965 which made discrimination by national origin illegal. (Hear that, Trump?) This goes way back to the 1880's and 1890's and was solidified in the early 20th century when Japan won the Russo-Japanese war and the US decided the only people who could possibly take over the US was Japan. Mind you, the Americans FORCED the Japanese to open up to them in the late 1800's. Basically I use "racism" as a short-cut since I know from personal experience that "race" does not exist. What we see as race is the result of people "inbreeding" due to geographical isolation. All blue-eyed people are descended from the same male who had a genetic malfunction. Did you know that? There is no such thing as race; but there is no word in English for what the Americans did to the Iranians. "Oppression sickness" refers to a person from a group that is discriminated against by the power group, told in every way possible that they are inferior, until they internalize these messages and believe them to be an immovable FACT. American universities have known for at least 70 years and likely more that students coming from the Iranian educational system are 2-4 years ahead of their Western counterparts in math and science across the board. Even the most mediocre students in science were 2 years ahead of their American counterparts. Science majors often have to begin their freshman year in graduate level courses, they are so far ahead. This isn't color of one's skin or slant of one's eyes stuff. It's not even racism since most Iranians are aryan. What happened in Iran was a grotesque indoctrination of the rightful owners of resources the Westerners wanted and they used fucked up cultural attacks to convince Iranians they were inferior to Westerners because of their culture. Those Westerners never learned the language (the CIA paid for their intel which is why it was so bad), never learned the first thing about their culture. I was 13 when I first went to Iran and knew no Farsi at the time. It took 5 days exploring the neighborhood of our guest house to realize there was going to be a revolution. Four years later I finally told the number three CIA official in Iran there was going to be a revolution and he jeered at me. He said organizing Iranians was like "herding cats" and laughed at his "wit". Yet when the revolution happened, the CIA said they had no idea. Bullshit. I get your resistance to "race". It's a stupid British idea that has caused no end of trouble to all humans. It does not exist. It's a catch-all phrase. And I mention this phenomenon in Iran in the 1970's to explain why there are so many Iranians in the US who sound like Israelis. They drank the Koolaid. I was warning people about this back in the 60's. And Iranian intellectuals were writing (carefully) about this. Why would Iranians work with MOSSAD within Iran to behead random strangers who passed them on the street? Why would they hate the ayatollahs. I'll grant you the ayatollahs have not been perfect. But compared to Christian leaders in the West I'll take the ayatollahs any day. They understand cultural misappropriation and discrimination very well. And they certainly are more ethical by a long shot. Don't get me started on Christianity as it is practiced in the West. Islam is much more progressive and compassionate a religion than Christianity, inmy opinion. The ayatollahs have made mistakes (due to political pressures it would take too long to explain and I don't know the half of it since I wasn't there at the time) but they have done an awful lot of good, given the condition the country was in before the revolution. The fear was paralyzing. I never studied Farsi formally, unfortunately, because the Persian teachers were required to inform on their students to SAVAK. It's much deeper than what passes for racism in the U.S. SAVAK were trained by the CIA and MOSSAD in Israel. You are comparing apples and oranges. People come to the US because, in part, of the indoctrination by the British. I know a lot of American academics who think the US school system is the best in the world. Most of them have never been outside the US. It most definitely is not. We had to come to the US every five years to "keep in touch with our culture" (which it wasn't as my American mother died young). Functioning in American schools was a joke. They were at least three years behind my school in Lebanon and Iran. I went to a highly respected private college in the US and stood out because of my reading background. My classmates had read maybe two books a year that weren't required in their private American schools. Europeans I have met visiting the US are much better read in American lit than Americans are. You grew up here. If you suffer from the same oppression sickness you probably don't even know it. I hope your parents were smart enough to bend over backward to keep their culture alive in you. (And their language?) What Americans did in Iran was extreme. Why do you think the hijab is such a big deal (not that most Americans knew what it was like for a woman to walk down the street at the time and how different--and much safer--it is now).
Best comment ever. Thank you.
Jay interprets and articulates, in detail and honestly, current world events with historical parallels. The clarity that ensues for the reader and the realistic insight he provides is frightening in this instance. I am sure your reader base, like yourself Jay, hope you are wrong for once. A profound thank you for your commitment and service - it is very much appreciated!
Thank you so much for the comment, Mo. And yes, I sincerely hope I am wrong too.
Great analysis Jay. Maybe you should also consider that Russia and China have their own interests in the outcome and agency to act in direct and indirect ways to counter American goals. Iran is a huge area that is not easy to surveil, particularly underground, or overwhelm with ground troops because of the mountainous terrain. An all out nuclear attack would likely receive a similar response from Russia and China, only Israel is in support of this approach as considered in their Samson Option.
Iran also has Hezbollah and Ansarallah on their side and they've demonstrated they punch above their weight and are fearless. They are experienced in asymmetric warfare in ways that have defied more powerful adversaries in the past.
The US may have a super-discombobulator (or other Wunderwaffen) that hasn't been revealed but Russia has the Oreshnik hypersonic missile, the Burevestnik global missile and the Poseidon nuclear drone. China also has the ability to destroy satellites, containerized missiles and roll-on roll-off cargo carriers which can conceal tanks and armored vehicles to bring grief to continental America. I doubt the Chinese are pleased about what is going on with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the US agreement with Indonesia to control the Strait of Malacca.
China controls the global rare earths market. Despite all the US desire to obtain more resources, what they don't have is the technology or know how (trade secrets) to separate and refine them at scale or manage and dispose of all the hazardous liquid and solid wastes. This is a difficult problem to solve quickly with the current level of education in the workforce. The whole suite of rare earths are required for manufacturing the range of diverse technological components involved for computing, aircraft, drones and weapons.
It might be better for Trump to swallow his pride and pursue a peaceful solution. A win-win outcome is best for all the people of the world.
Trump swallow his pride?? You do know that is impossible for a malignant narcissist to do, right?
First of all, Jay, I appreciated your previous article on "The Mongols, Drones, and the Future of War."
Regarding the need for Dollars for Central Banks, etc., at this point, there is precious little oil to buy at almost any price, so loading up with Dollars won't happen until tankers are moving again. We are already seeing rationing/running out of oil products in a number of countries. More Dollars won't bring them any more oil.
On a different tack, I find it interesting that after Trump tariffed Europe/NATO countries, made fun of their leaders in some of the most rude ways possible, and now whines because they aren't riding to the rescue, with him expecting them to break the bottleneck. Personally, I believe they are loving the egomaniac taking a fall for a change. This is not NATO's war whatsoever and no European countries war. This is Israel's War and Donnie is Netanyahu's junior partner in crime. If we had a Congress worthy of the name, they would impeach him for starting a war which constitutionally only Congress can decide. Trump acts like Napoleon, but it seems he may have ran into his own personal Waterloo.
Jay, very thoughtful analysis with many factors considered. I too hope we don’t go into worst case scenarios.
I see Israel as the wild card with huge influence within US establishments. They could influence for different outcome, not to rational actions for good of America or the region.
China will not want Iran to lose this war nor this source of energy for their economy. It is likely that China will continue to support Iran both militarily and economically and defy the US no matter how desperate we are to destroy Iran. This war will drag on for more years and bleed the global economy with slower growth and contraction in many economies with higher costs for everything everywhere, while displacing and killing innocent civilians.
Great article that really opened my eyes to all the potential outcomes. It sounds like Brent Johnson is betting on "The Flip" but it will be massively hard to pull off.
You're an excellent writer and I appreciate your sharing your deep thinking with me.
My pleasure, Elizabeth. And I agree - very hard to pull off.
Excellent analysis Jay!
But China and Russia cannot accept this outcome as it is clearly aimed at them. The Gulf states know this and see that the US is no longer able to guarantee their fragile safety. A missile now and then will kill their position as a fugitive camp for the rich, tourist destination, AI and other tech business base and air transport hub not to mention the vulnerability of their oil and gas business they are trying to diversify on.
The Gulf state leaders have educations at top universities and will also understand that this is how empires die and put the long term interests of their countries first. War, and especially a protracted one, is not on their wish list I guess and will force them to divest from the US. Iran is playing this.
China, Russia and Iran dominate the "Heartland" and with the present vulnerability of air and seapower they may have better cards than the guys thinking they hold all the cards.
The only thing I think that is missing....is that the world seems so wrapped up in such extreme ideology and psychotic ego and greed that what is missing is just the people who are reasonable, sensible and logical to sit at a table and figure this shit out, face to face and that they need to remember who and what is at stake here. Us. The Humans, on this planet all trying to eke out an existence.
These people Nancy are called Russians, Americans and Israelis. Nobody else (to my knowledge) is currently engaged in the theft of resources and land and children from others.
Excellent piece
Thank you!
Well written and powerful article! Thanks Jay! Praying too for a more peaceful resolution but hard to trust a hope.
100%
Its worse !
Your discussion of historical parallels is insightful and a discouraging point of view that I didn't have the historical background to consider.
BRILLIANT!!!
Thank you
I will need to read this a couple of more times to really get all of it. You are fucking brilliant!!
Appreciate you Nancy